Reacting to Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York City Democratic Party mayoral primary, Nate Silver wrote: “When an election outcome is decisive, default toward all-of-the-above explanations.”
Fair enough. And yes, there were likely multiple currents running through the result. But, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. And in this case, the Occam’s Razor answer is simple.
Mamdani nailed the haiku
James Carville’s “haiku” mantra from Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign—"Change vs. more of the same; the economy, stupid; don't forget health care”—is not only still relevant, but it is also now once again the blueprint for Democrats.
The key is the first part. I wrote in Newsweek last month that:
Change has been a burgeoning theme in American politics for decades—since 1979, the median percentage of us who are dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the U.S." has been 70 percent. And if there's one consistent takeaway from the past year of public opinion research, it's that voters want change more than ever.
Change is the starting point for everything in American politics right now. It is the thing that candidates have to get right to have a chance. In fact, I would argue that in each national election since 1992—including midterms—the party that has won on change has won the election (I went through them all, including the one or two possible exceptions, when I was a guest on the Keeping Democracy Alive podcast).
The rest of the haiku matters too: focus ferociously on fixing Americans’ economic pain, and don’t forget the biggest sources of anxiety and cost in their lives.
So look at what Mamdani did.
Change: he jujitsued his youth, relative inexperience, and social-media-ready energy into a sharp contrast with a scandal-beset former governor and son-of-a-former-governor who first broke onto the national scene when Mandani was a zygote. So who won the change argument in this election?
Economy: a Mamdani campaign source told Politico’s Holly Otterbein last night that voters "have been screaming for people to be laser-focused on costs and affordability and making people's lives better and communicate in an authentic voice. Period. He did that. This is so fucking simple." Just look at Mamdani’s platform and top social media videos: “freeze the rent;” “Build affordable housing;” “Lower food costs through city-owned grocery stores;” “Free public transit.” In other words: costs, affordability…and laser-frickin-focus.
Healthcare: There is a healthcare section of Mamdani’s website. But ignore that. Think broader. Healthcare resonates because it is about cost anxiety—the fear that you won’t be able to afford the doctors and treatments you need. Per the above, Mamdani crushed on costs. To be sure, for other Democrats, it is worth remembering that healthcare continues to perform the best and offer the most promise for Democrats. As
wrote yesterday:Democrats looking for an issue on which to gain a leg up ahead of next year’s midterms would be wise to zero in on health care… post-election research found that despite the party’s low standing after 2024, health care remains one of the few issues on which they have an advantage over Republicans.
So why is Democratic Socialist Mamdani’s victory good news for the broader Democratic Party, even as center-left Dems give Politico despairing blind quotes like “It is extremely alarming that the only candidates who genuinely excite our voters are the ones making absolutely insane promises on politically toxic positions?”
Not because he is a Democratic Socialist—to the extent that voters think about the “socialism” label, it is still a definite negative (only 28% viewed it favorably in 2023, according to Pew). Not because of his specific policy ideas—many of his ideas are unworkable, but voters don’t decide based on exhaustively detailed policy anyway.
It is because his basic playbook is something that any Democratic candidate—and the whole Democratic Party—can run: represent real change, focus relentlessly on the economy, and don’t forget to make it about the biggest sources of cost anxiety, especially healthcare.
I got into these themes with
, the dynamic founder of Run for Something, an organization that recruits and supports young candidates (billed as progressive, though as we discussed, that has a broader meaning than you might think) on my Livestream yesterday. We talked about what younger Americans want and whether we can win back these critical voters after they drifted away in 2024.You can watch the full show in the embedded player above, or for a slightly edited version as a video podcast, you can watch here:
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